The 12-month change for Core CPI has been in the range of 2.0 to 2.2% for 11 months in a row
when did you raise your inflation target above 2%?
So core CPI is 2.1% and above the Fed target. Jobless claims and unemployment are at or near 50+ year lows and the Fed is going to ease because of BREXIT, Federal Debt Ceiling, and trade developments. Seems to me the main reason is political expediency.
“Core” CPI up 0.3% in June and 2.1% YOY. Initial jobless claims fell to 209,000, one of the lowest levels ever. Real average hourly earnings up 1.5% YOY in June vs 1.1% in April. Powell & Co are left with unspecified “uncertainties” to justify an unneeded rate cut.
Core CPI printed a 2 handle for the 16th straight month. Services inflation ex energy remains persistently near 3% & now we have a .4% m/o/m jump in core goods prices. Tariffs now filtering thru in almost every single home furnishings categories & apparel. Inflation is NOT dead.
- US Core CPI M/M (SA) Jun: 0.3% (est 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
- US Core CPI Y/Y (NSA) Jun: 2.1% (est 2.0%, prev 2.0%)
Core CPI 2.1%
2.4% expected GDP growth.
Consumer credit +5% annualised
So, why a rate cut? Behold 👇 https://t.co/OseEaGsXYC
Okay - so core CPI is at 2.1% y/y and real earnings are up 1.5% - both above expectations. Powell will likely emphasize that the Fed's concerns are with the global economy - not so much the U.S.
INFLATION WATCH: U.S. consumer prices rise 0.1% in June. Core CPI (minus food & energy) up 0.3% - highest in a year and a half. Increase in inflation in past 12 months slows to 1.6% from 1.8%. Core CPI edges up to 2.1% from 2%. Upshot: Inflation still fairly tame.
Core CPI beats at 2.1% YoY and Atlanta Fed's wage tracker higher to 3.9% YoY. Investors look ready to price in 2.0% headline CPI (1st chart) and continue to remove any hints of deflation (2nd chart).@DataArbor https://t.co/GyTKCm11yc
June's .3% jump in core CPI is the largest in 1.5 years. YOY core CPI is up 2.1%, the 11th consecutive month at 2% or higher. Yet despite this jump Powell's excuse that the Fed is about to cut rates because inflation is too low is being accepted by the media and the markets.
No china deal - no nafta deal - globe slowing - core cpi rising - no Iran deal - .........................
June core #CPI up 2.1% y/y -- 16 straight months of 2% or above. June's core #PCE -- #Fed's fav -- out July 30th, just in time for #FOMC meeting; May up 1.6%. Since May '12, core PCE w/ 2 handle only once. #economy https://t.co/G7Y6zqelZR
US #CPI +0.1%:
- core CPI +0.3% (stronger than expected & strongest since Jan 2018)
- food flat
- energy -2.3% as #gasoline -3.6%
> shelter cost +0.3%, apparel +1.1% (has reversed 50% of earlier declines)
> Headline #inflation 1.6% (low since Feb)
> Core inflation +2.1% https://t.co/QDBX5I9D2U
While core #CPI stronger than expected in June, #Fed will still deliver 25bp July rate cut.
#Inflation story has 2 elements to it:
1. transitory factors restraining inflation (apparel & others)
2. structural softness
> (1) will dissipate, (2) will linger
> Fed cares about (2) https://t.co/LF0DkUMYf3
US Core CPI M/M Jun: 0.3% est 0.2%
US Core CPI Y/Y Jun: 2.1% est 2.0%
Well i did my part w/the increase in gardening! 🌱🌶️🍓🌽 https://t.co/cU1pl1oOAP
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and St. Louis Financial Stress Index both sitting near 'easiest' levels of 2018 then early 1990s (CFNFCI). Throw in the higher than expected Core CPI (2.1% y/y) and Powell's picture is getting more complicated $SPX https://t.co/RVt30j4lUV
Fed doesnt care about hot labor mkt now mkt doesnt think they will care about hot core cpi? too old to go back to trade school -- wait this one out
The unrounded June change in the core CPI was +0.2942%, the largest 1-mo increase since January 2018 (+0.3038%) and the second largest since April 2006 (+0.3438%). The all items less energy index rose 0.2577% in June, the most in 17 months and second most in nearly eight years. https://t.co/p1n00wg1IW
Strong print on core #CPI in June after 4 months of weakness supports the transitory interpretation although the stable underlying trend is still too low for comfort for the #FOMC https://t.co/Q4MPj67Kel
US consumer prices (CPI) rose +0.1% m/m in June, bringing the y/y inflation rate down from +1.8% to +1.6%. Core CPI (ex food and energy), however, rose +0.3% m/m, bringing the y/y rose up from +2.0% to +2.1%, driven by a rebound in clothing prices.
core CPI 2.1 hey @Lavorgnanomics
isn t that great do get poorer every year and on top of that have a central bank that does not even pay you for that - BRAVO
Another fly in the #Fed’s easing ointment. Core CPI ties biggest jump in this cycle!! Consensus says #inflation is dead but late cycles generally have higher-than-expected inflation. Worth considering. https://t.co/Xn8aP0Ojp5
Inflation numbers came in & core CPI rises to 2.1% from 2%. If #inflation becomes a problem what nonsense is Jerome Powell going to give the market to justify not raising interest rates? Part of the duel mandate of the fed does not involve bending the knee to Trump. https://t.co/EmCq8Z6GQ6
#Powell #Testimony This is uncomfortable for the Fed’s communication: there’s no sign of made-at-home disinflation in today's US CPI. Core CPI remains comfortably anchored at the Fed’s 2% handle, despite a prolonged intl energy price weakness. And the labour market is tightening.
real average hourly earnings YoY 1.5% versus 1.3%....core cpi higher .. the fed wanna cut ? no powell trump cut your balls
The picture is mixed at best. Headline CPI slowed to +1.6% YoY (exactly as expected) - below The Fed's mandated 2.0% 'stability' level; but core CPI rose 2.1%
#EconomicData #Inflation #InterestRates #Hedge #Gold #ZeroHedge
#US underlying consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in June amid solid gains in the costs of a range of goods and services, but will probably not change expectations the #FederalReserve will cut interest rates this month.
Elevated shelter costs continues to remain the driving force behind rise in core CPI.
But raising interest rates could actually push inflation higher by raising mortgage interest and rent. https://t.co/Dsm8mLCDVF
Headline US CPI was down at 1.6% vs 1.8% in May on Energy.
Core CPI is up at 2.1% from 2.0%. https://t.co/cuQJWVFJkQ
Well, FOMC, inflation as measured by the core CPI (all items less food and energy) was 2.1% over the past 12 months. Still thinking of lowering the target Fed Funds rate to force negative real interest rates on savers? https://t.co/xVxHm0DcRI
Data shows no hint on deflation, as core cpi beats estimated today. Please don’t tell me #USA has an independent monetary policy scheme. #Powell #Fed #Trump
I think you might get round two today: CPI and Core CPI, both reported higher than forecast, and unemployment claims came in 5% below forecast. Going to be a nice USD day it looks like.
June CPI a bit warmer than expected rising 0.1% vs 0.0% expected, Core CPI up 0.3% vs 0.2%. Year over year CPI 1.6%, Core 2.1%.
Europe mixed, Asia up & US to open up, #Powell on Hill for grill day 2, US/China Trade talks still talking (quietly), Core CPI 2.1% YoY vs. 2.0% expected, $BBBY misses- stock takes bath, S&P to open 2999, Gold $1418, Dollar down (DXY below $97), 10yr yield 2.08, Oil $60+